Published by: TradeLanes
Date: April 2025
Contact: market.insights@tradelanes.co
Executive Summary
The EXPORT5™ Index is a five-factor composite model designed to track and forecast operational and cost-based risks to U.S. exporters of agriculture, food, and commodities. Built on lessons from the 2017-2020 trade war, the model helps exporters, policymakers, and logistics providers quantify and respond to disruption across ocean schedules, inland operations, and tariff policy shocks.
This white paper explains the methodology, use cases, and risk thresholds behind EXPORT5 - including real historical examples and recommended alerts for decision-makers.
🌐 TradeLanes EXPORT5 Index™
(Export Performance & Operational Risk Tracker)
What it stands for:
Export
X-Factor (Resilience to Disruption)
Performance
Operational Volatility
Risk
Tracker
5 core metrics behind port and schedule disruption risk
Why EXPORT5™ Now?
The global trade system has entered another era of volatility. New tariff packages enacted in 2025 have led to:
- A surge in blank sailings across trans-Pacific and Gulf routes
- Port congestion (notably at USLAX, USSEA, and USEWR)
- Inland rail disruptions tied to revised ERDs and empty container shortages
Exporters today need more than visibility - they need predictive indicators of risk. EXPORT5™ delivers that.
The Five Metrics
1. VSDR
Vessel Schedule Disruption Risk Score
- Measures risk of vessel delays, port omissions, or rolled bookings.
- Built from:
- Tariff event proximity (Tariff Window Index, TWI)
- Port congestion (Port Stress Index, PSI)
- On-time reliability adjusted for blank sailings (Vessel Reliability Index, VRI)
🧮 Formula:
🔔 Alert Thresholds
|
VSDR Range |
Signal |
|
< 0.4 |
Low Risk (Normal operations) |
|
0.4-0.6 |
Watch (Monitor inland rail alignments) |
|
> 0.6 |
High Risk (Trigger contingency vessel planning) |
2. EDPS
Export Delay Probability Score
- Predicts the chance that cargo will miss the CY cutoff.
- Captures reliability of vessel, rail, and inland readiness.
🧮 Formula:
Where:
- VSR = Vessel Schedule Reliability
- RSR = Rail Schedule Reliability
- ISR = Inland Staging Readiness (chassis, empties, warehousing)
🔔 Alert Thresholds
|
EDPS Score |
Signal |
|
< 0.3 |
Low Delay Probability |
|
0.3-0.5 |
Moderate Delay Risk (Pre-alert customer) |
|
> 0.5 |
High Risk (Shift to earlier booking or air freight) |
3. TVSI
Tariff-Driven Volume Surge Index
- Measures magnitude of import/export volume surges before or after tariffs.
- Flags front-loading pressure that may trigger congestion.
🧮 Formula:
🔔 Alert Thresholds
|
TVSI Value |
Signal |
|
< 1.0 |
Normalized Volume |
|
1.0-1.25 |
Noticeable Front-Loading (Prep empty repositioning) |
|
> 1.25 |
Major Surge (Escalate chassis + dray response) |
4. ECDD
Export Cost Disruption Delta
- Total additional costs per container caused by disruption (not including base freight).
- Reflects surcharges, detention, drayage retries, and warehousing.
🧮 Formula:
🔔 Alert Thresholds
|
ECDD ($) |
Signal |
|
< $800 |
Normal Variability |
|
$800-$1200 |
Moderate Cost Stress (Evaluate recovery fees) |
|
> $1200 |
High Margin Impact (Flag CFO + reprice loads) |
5. SRI
Schedule Recovery Index
- Tracks post-disruption rebound in schedule performance.
- Indicates whether carriers are improving reliability.
🧮 Formula:
🔔 Alert Thresholds
|
SRI Value |
Signal |
|
> 1.0 |
Recovered (Back to normal ops) |
|
0.9-1.0 |
Improving (Monitor) |
|
< 0.9 |
Stagnant or worsening (Escalate carrier reviews) |
Composite Index: CELDS
Composite Export Logistics Disruption Score
The core index value: average of the first four metrics (VSDR, EDPS, TVSI, ECDD).
🧮 Formula:
🔔 Alert Thresholds
|
CELDS Score |
Signal |
|
< 0.5 |
Normal Risk |
|
0.5-0.6 |
Monitor Export Routes |
|
> 0.6 |
High Disruption Risk (Activate Contingency Playbook) |
Historical Scenario: Q4 2018
During the height of the U.S.-China trade war:
- TVSI peaked at 1.45 (massive front-loading of Chinese imports)
- VSDR exceeded 0.70 at USLAX due to container backlogs
- ECDD averaged $1,350/container due to rolled bookings and extra drayage
- CELDS values climbed above 0.65 for multiple weeks
These conditions forced exporters to:
- Switch to alternative ports like USHOU or USSEA
- Negotiate emergency space with forwarders
- Delay or reroute perishables at major cost
EXPORT5™ Applications
- 📊 Dashboards for Exporters (by port, by week)
- 🔁 Contract clause triggers (detention waiver, surcharge threshold)
- 🚨 Risk alerting (Email notification if CELDS > 0.6)
- 📉 Margin impact modeling (via ECDD + TVSI)
Download & Integration
- Templates are available: contact your TradeLanes rep for access.
- Web dashboard version: contact your TradeLanes rep for API access
About TradeLanes
TradeLanes provides intelligent automation and visibility solutions for U.S. exporters of food, ag, and commodities. EXPORT5™ is part of our mission to simplify and secure global export logistics with predictive data and actionable tools.
For enterprise integrations, contact: market.insights@tradelanes.co
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