EXPORT5™ Index White Paper: Measuring Export Risk and Resilience in a Tariff-Volatile World

Written by Vijay Harrell | 7 Apr 2025

Published by: TradeLanes
Date: April 2025
Contact: market.insights@tradelanes.co

Executive Summary

The EXPORT5™ Index is a five-factor composite model designed to track and forecast operational and cost-based risks to U.S. exporters of agriculture, food, and commodities. Built on lessons from the 2017-2020 trade war, the model helps exporters, policymakers, and logistics providers quantify and respond to disruption across ocean schedules, inland operations, and tariff policy shocks.

This white paper explains the methodology, use cases, and risk thresholds behind EXPORT5 - including real historical examples and recommended alerts for decision-makers.

🌐 TradeLanes EXPORT5 Index™

(Export Performance & Operational Risk Tracker)

What it stands for:

Export
X-Factor (Resilience to Disruption)
Performance
Operational Volatility
Risk
Tracker
5 core metrics behind port and schedule disruption risk

Why EXPORT5™ Now?

The global trade system has entered another era of volatility. New tariff packages enacted in 2025 have led to:

A surge in blank sailings across trans-Pacific and Gulf routes
Port congestion (notably at USLAX, USSEA, and USEWR)
Inland rail disruptions tied to revised ERDs and empty container shortages

Exporters today need more than visibility - they need predictive indicators of risk. EXPORT5™ delivers that.

The Five Metrics

1. VSDR

Vessel Schedule Disruption Risk Score

Measures risk of vessel delays, port omissions, or rolled bookings.
Built from:
- Tariff event proximity (Tariff Window Index, TWI)
- Port congestion (Port Stress Index, PSI)
- On-time reliability adjusted for blank sailings (Vessel Reliability Index, VRI)

🧮 Formula:

🔔 Alert Thresholds

VSDR Range	Signal
< 0.4	Low Risk (Normal operations)
0.4-0.6	Watch (Monitor inland rail alignments)
> 0.6	High Risk (Trigger contingency vessel planning)

2. EDPS

Export Delay Probability Score

Predicts the chance that cargo will miss the CY cutoff.
Captures reliability of vessel, rail, and inland readiness.

🧮 Formula:

Where:

VSR = Vessel Schedule Reliability
RSR = Rail Schedule Reliability
ISR = Inland Staging Readiness (chassis, empties, warehousing)

🔔 Alert Thresholds

EDPS Score	Signal
< 0.3	Low Delay Probability
0.3-0.5	Moderate Delay Risk (Pre-alert customer)
> 0.5	High Risk (Shift to earlier booking or air freight)

3. TVSI

Tariff-Driven Volume Surge Index

Measures magnitude of import/export volume surges before or after tariffs.
Flags front-loading pressure that may trigger congestion.

🧮 Formula:

🔔 Alert Thresholds

TVSI Value	Signal
< 1.0	Normalized Volume
1.0-1.25	Noticeable Front-Loading (Prep empty repositioning)
> 1.25	Major Surge (Escalate chassis + dray response)

4. ECDD

Export Cost Disruption Delta

Total additional costs per container caused by disruption (not including base freight).
Reflects surcharges, detention, drayage retries, and warehousing.

🧮 Formula:

🔔 Alert Thresholds

ECDD ($)	Signal
< $800	Normal Variability
$800-$1200	Moderate Cost Stress (Evaluate recovery fees)
> $1200	High Margin Impact (Flag CFO + reprice loads)

5. SRI

Schedule Recovery Index

Tracks post-disruption rebound in schedule performance.
Indicates whether carriers are improving reliability.

🧮 Formula:

🔔 Alert Thresholds

SRI Value	Signal
> 1.0	Recovered (Back to normal ops)
0.9-1.0	Improving (Monitor)
< 0.9	Stagnant or worsening (Escalate carrier reviews)

Composite Index: CELDS

Composite Export Logistics Disruption Score

The core index value: average of the first four metrics (VSDR, EDPS, TVSI, ECDD).

🧮 Formula:

🔔 Alert Thresholds

CELDS Score	Signal
< 0.5	Normal Risk
0.5-0.6	Monitor Export Routes
> 0.6	High Disruption Risk (Activate Contingency Playbook)

Historical Scenario: Q4 2018

During the height of the U.S.-China trade war:

TVSI peaked at 1.45 (massive front-loading of Chinese imports)
VSDR exceeded 0.70 at USLAX due to container backlogs
ECDD averaged $1,350/container due to rolled bookings and extra drayage
CELDS values climbed above 0.65 for multiple weeks

These conditions forced exporters to:

Switch to alternative ports like USHOU or USSEA
Negotiate emergency space with forwarders
Delay or reroute perishables at major cost

EXPORT5™ Applications

📊 Dashboards for Exporters (by port, by week)
🔁 Contract clause triggers (detention waiver, surcharge threshold)
🚨 Risk alerting (Email notification if CELDS > 0.6)
📉 Margin impact modeling (via ECDD + TVSI)

Download & Integration

Templates are available: contact your TradeLanes rep for access.
Web dashboard version: contact your TradeLanes rep for API access

About TradeLanes

TradeLanes provides intelligent automation and visibility solutions for U.S. exporters of food, ag, and commodities. EXPORT5™ is part of our mission to simplify and secure global export logistics with predictive data and actionable tools.

For enterprise integrations, contact: market.insights@tradelanes.co

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