TradeLanes Blog

April Disrupted: Booking Freezes & Blank Sailings Shake U.S. Export Flow (U.S. Exporters Alert - 8 April 2025)

Written by Vijay Harrell | 8 Apr 2025

This is an update from our 7 April 2025 article: April Blank Sailings and Tariff Risks: What U.S. Exporters Need to Know Now

The Latest Shock: Post-Tariff Booking Freezes Hit Vessel Schedules

Following recent tariff escalation threats from former President Trump—including a proposed 50% tariff on Chinese goods—many shippers and forwarders are now pausing bookings into the U.S. for April and May. According to reporting from Eric Johnson at the Journal of Commerce (2025), some importers are reducing bookings by 10–20%, while others have fully canceled all bookings through the end of May.

This behavior, as highlighted in Johnson's LinkedIn commentary, is creating a new and immediate shock to global ocean schedules, reminiscent of early-pandemic trade dynamics.

What to Expect in April–May 2025

Context from Lars Jensen: Maritime analyst Lars Jensen noted that tariff uncertainty is now so severe that strategic supply chain planning has become almost impossible. In his words, "no supply chain planning is possible at the moment... shippers, forwarders, and carriers are forced to act from a short-term tactical perspective." He highlights that paused bookings are already disrupting vessel utilization and that the next likely domino to fall is a wave of additional last-minute blank sailings if demand continues to drop. The scale of uncertainty around U.S.-China trade is now beyond anything previously seen—including during the initial stages of the 2018–2020 trade war.

1. Blank Sailings Will Surge

With booking volumes falling rapidly, carriers will blank more sailings—especially on trans-Pacific eastbound routes. Expect more last-minute loop cancellations and service consolidations across all three major alliances.

2. Carrier Schedule Volatility Will Accelerate

As demand plummets, carriers will pull vessels from rotation, skip ports with low volume, and merge services to cut costs. Inland U.S. exporters may see changes to scheduled ERDs, port omissions, and limited equipment availability.

3. Inland and Export Disruption Risk Rising

Carriers shifting strategies week-to-week will leave exporters with:

  • Less schedule reliability
  • Shortened booking windows
  • Rolled containers due to reallocated capacity

4. "March 2020" Lessons Apply Again

Early 2020 taught us what happens when demand shock hits hard: blank sailings surge, reliability craters, and ports face confusion. Exporters should be preparing for an equally unpredictable ride in Q2 2025.

What Exporters Should Do Right Now

  • Scenario-plan port coverage: Confirm your primary gateways are still being serviced for April/May departures. Secure alternates.
  • Push for carrier communication: Request real-time ERD and port call updates, especially for Asia–U.S. loops.
  • Negotiate fallback routing: Build clauses for alternate ports, extended free time, or transload pivots.
  • Track blank sailings weekly: Use tools like eeSea or TradeLanes’ Ava to monitor carrier updates.
  • Pre-position inventory or switch ports: Especially if you're in the Midwest or Southeast, consider staging goods at multiple inland ramps.

Key Takeaway:

Maritime analysts like Lars Jensen are reinforcing that short-term adaptability is now the only viable playbook. The vessel schedule disruption exporters feared is now underway. Booking cancellations on the import side are triggering capacity cuts, creating new volatility for U.S. exporters. Prepare now—or risk being rolled next.

#exporters #blanksailings #schedulevolatility #tariffimpact #tradelanes #supplychainalert #raildisruption #vesselschedules

References
View full post